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Finals scenarios: The last day

21 January 2017

The Renegades will be anxiously watching on during the last day of the regular season

Saturday will be a nervous day for the Renegades, who will be keen spectators of the double header down in Hobart with the Hurricanes v Scorchers, and in Melbourne with the Stars v Sixers.

The following needs to go the Renegades’ way to sneak into the finals.

Result 1: Stars to defeat Sixers

Both teams are on four wins heading into the match, but the Stars’ net run rate is significantly higher than the Renegades.

A loss by the Stars would have to be by an unrealistic amount for them to dip below the Renegades, which means the latter will want the Stars to defeat the Sixers.

Result 2a: Scorchers to defeat Hurricanes

If the Scorchers defeat the Hurricanes, it eliminates any possible confusion. Because if the opposite happens…

Result 2b: Hurricanes defeat Scorchers

This will have everyone scrambling to the calculators. An explanation:

- The Hurricanes are currently 0.221 behind the Renegades on net run rate.
- If they win and overtake the Renegades, we also must remember they’re taking the same chunk out of the Scorchers’ net run rate.
- If the Hurricanes win by enough to overtake the Renegades, they’re also bringing the Scorchers’ net run rate down very close to the Renegades.

But what does this mean?

A narrow Hurricanes win will still be beneficial for the Renegades, because the latter won’t be passed on net run rate.

However, in a worst-case scenario, there is a small margin of Hurricanes victory which will leave them both above the Renegades on the ladder, and still below the Scorchers.

Depending on the totals posted by both teams at Blundstone Arena, it will likely be about a five to six ball window if Hobart chases, or a seven to eight run window if Hobart bats first.

To sum it all up, a Stars and Scorchers double will guarantee a finals berth for the Renegades.

And if the Hurricanes look like they’re coasting to a victory, join us on Twitter @RenegadesBBL for all the latest updates.